The Perfect 10

Usually when a coach or GM botches a draft pick, the "staying true to the board" and draft slot excuse is in play. But in fantasy football terms, it's actually a valid war room tool. For me, plotting out every pick for the first round or two sets my mind at ease on draft day. I've found that a reach at the top of the draft can send me spiraling into more reaches, resulting in chasing good money after bad. With that said, here is, step-for-step, my first round road map for each draft slot.

1) RB Adrian Peterson -- I'll take purple reign all day, You can't beat an average of nearly 1,500 yards and 13.6 touchdowns per year and now there's no Chester Taylor to take carries and third downs. Toby Gerhart might swipe a goal-line carry or two, though.

 

2) RB Chris Johnson -- Simply a matter of choice here as the former bullet-fast ECU Pirate went nuclear in '09. It's a coin-flip for the top spot.

3) RB Maurice Jones-Drew -- Finally shook off the departed Fred Taylor in a time share and hit new highs across the board including nearly 1,800 yards and 16 TDs. His ceiling remains pretty high, especially for a conservative, run-first Jaguars team.

4) RB Frank Gore -- Missed a couple games due to injury but will be complimented by a 49ers passing game ready to break out in a division with defenses lacking.

5) RB Michael Turner -- Workhorse back should bounce back. Despite injury-plagued '09, scored 10 TDs in 11 games.

6) RB Ray Rice -- Taken as high as No. 2 in multiple mock drafts I've seen (hopefully not just by 12-year old cranks on their parents' computer), I'm a little more down on him. It's hard to knock 2,000 combined yards of production, but easy to knock 7 rushing TDs and goal-line duties that likely again, won't be his.

7) WR Andre Johnson -- The best receiver available, hands down. With a (finally) healthy Matt Schaub, Johnson is just starting to scratch the surface. If Schaub can stay dialed in and a consistent running game ever takes hold, watch out.

8) QB Drew Brees -- Many mocks may have him at the start to the middle of the second round, but where else are you going to get his stat production and fantasy consistency? You don't want to risk him not being there in the second if you're picking in the late first round.

9) QB Aaron Rodgers -- See No. 8 above; either could go as high as No. 7 for me. These are value picks.

10) RB Rashard Mendenhall -- The Steelers will lean on him early while a certain QB sits out suspended. The third-year back showed what he could do by coming on last year as the lead runner once Willie Parker went out injured (again).
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Since there are a few leagues I play in with 12 teams, here's a couple of bonus slots that I'd use in a 12-team draft.

11) WR Randy Moss -- The Patriots' passing attack will still be potent, and Moss has at least one more good year left in him.

12) RB Shonn Greene -- Not crazy about him, but the potential is there for him to be a beast and this is a slot I can live with. Greene might be a revelation or might be revolting, depending on what he does in his first chance as the entrenched starter.
Notables missing: RB Steven Jackson (rookie QB, putrid team), WR Reggie Wayne (a ground rule double, but not a home run pick who's slowing down a little), WR Larry Fitzgerald (QB situation murky, second wideout downgraded with Anquan Boldin gone).