New England Patriots Season Preview 2010

Offense

QB: Tom Brady is back and should be better than he was in 2009, even though most teams would give anything for Brady's 2009 play. This is year two after the devastating knee injury, which is when most players finally get back to full strength. It doesn't hurt that Brady is playing for a new contract either, as a strong season could net him upwards of $50M. Few are better than Brady at firing the ball into tight spaces and at putting the receiver in position to do something after the catch. He is the consummate field general, in complete command of the huddle and preternaturally poised. The offense is built around his skills with the deep ball and his exceptional vision. Brady knows exactly where to go with the ball on all the crosses and slants, and his pre-snap reads are rarely wrong. His mobility and ability to shuffle in the pocket should be back to normal, as last year Brady struggled with side-stepping and then throwing. There are lingering questions about his personal life, but I find that to be hogwash from envious enemies.

For fantasy purposes, this is a fantastic season to have Tom Brady as your QB...after the first month. Once the strong secondaries of CIN, NYJ, BUF and MIA are out of the way after Week 4, there are a whole host of torch-worthy pass defenses. Pretty much the entire non-divisional schedule features lower-rung pass defenses. Considering the Pats own pass defense is questionable, there should be a lot of situations where Brady has to throw 50 passes. I rarely dispense fantasy advice, so take that for what it is.

Brian Hoyer returns as the backup, and the experience he garnered last season should serve him well in his second season. The Patriots obviously hope he never sees the field, but his teammates appear to trust Hoyer to take care of business for a half or so. He's smaller than Brady but plays with the same style, sans the zip on the ball. Rookie Zac Robinson and journeyman clipboard holder Jeff Rowe will compete for the #3 spot, a thankless role on a team that keeps just two QBs active on game days.

RB: To say the Patriots employ a backfield by committee is a gross understatement. That committee runs five deep, and each player brings something relatively unique to the table. Still, the coaches would be quite pleased if Laurence Maroney finally stepped up and seized the feature back role.

Maroney is fighting for his next contract in 2010, and unless he shows improved reliability and ball security, that contract will come from another team. He has yet to fulfill his first round draft status, but more to the point he has been woefully outshined by his Golden Gopher teammate Marion Barber in Dallas. Maroney runs with little power or decisiveness, and his fumblitis that landed him somewhere between the end of the bench and Bill Belichick's doghouse must end immediately. Yet he is also the most naturally gifted runner on the team and has shown he can be productive--witness his 9 TDs last year. He is also quite good in pass protection, something that could not be said early in his career.

Ageless (to them) Kevin Faulk is the top receiver and 3rd down back. He was also the most successful runner in 2009, averaging over 5 yards per carry and doing so despite lining up behind a spread set more often than any other back on the team. Faulk continues to more than capably fill his role at 34, and because it's a limited role his wear and tear isn't nearly as bad as most of his contemporaries. Sammy Morris is a much bigger version of Faulk, used almost as much as a receiver as he is a runner. They even use him as an H-back at times. His versatility gives him good value for the Patriots, particularly for a coach like Belichick that likes to ride a hot hand and chain cold ones to the pine. Fred Taylor is also 34 but has significant mileage on his legs. He played sparingly last season before getting hurt, though he was pretty good when he got chances. He fits the profile of a more elusive between-the-tackles back, whereas BenJarvus Green-Ellis is more of a "try to tackle me" power back--even though Taylor is bigger. He's a fan favorite and virtual victory cigar for Belichick.

WR/TE: A lot here hinges on the health of Wes Welker, the league's most productive receiver. Welker appears ahead of schedule on his torn ACL, but that is widely regarded as a 2-year injury to get back to full strength and it's been just 9 months since Welker wrecked his knee. When he is healthy he is simply uncoverable in the slot: quick, shifty, precise and powerful. Welker is also quite dangerous after the catch, routinely turning a 3 yard pass into a 15 yard gain. It's hard to project just how effective he'll be in 2010 because of the knee, but color me optimistically skeptical. My best guess: Welker will start the season looking great but the wear and tear will cause a steep decline by about Week 6.

Converted Kent State QB Julian Edelman filled in admirably in Welker's stead, but it's a real stretch to expect him to produce consistently like Welker. The defenses he faced took a "prove it" attitude, and now that he has shown he does indeed have some legit skill, expect adjustments in handling him. Edelman is faster and presents more opportunity to go deeper on routes than Welker (his role when the two played together), but he isn't as technically sound and doesn't have the preternatural mind meld with Brady. One thing he does better than Welker: perimeter run blocking--and you can ask Kevin Faulk about it. That's no shot at Welker either; he's a perfectly capable blocker, but Edelman appears to thrive on hitting people. Makes you wonder how he ever wound up a QB...

And then there's this Moss guy. Randy Moss remains worthy of perennial All Pro status, still able to glide by most corners and overpower most safeties even at 33. He clearly rejoiced in having Tom Brady back as his QB, going deep more often and actually getting the ball where and when he wanted it. With all the underneath stuff getting so much focus from the defense, Moss often gets over/under coverage on the wide side, and nobody I've seen play has ever been more effective at getting space and hitting the seams between them as Moss. That part of his game remains top notch, and the way he quickly snatches the ball from the air with his strong-but-soft hands is a coach's dream. He's not as quick off the line as he used to be, and his long speed has lost a half-step. Some critics still question his effort when he has lower-production games, but I've not seen any issues other than a poor half against Carolina last year. Expect another season, probably his last in New England, of around 75 catches, 1200 yards, and double digit touchdowns.

The rest of the receiving corps is the subject of a crowded camp battle. Rookie 3rd rounder Taylor Price was drafted that high for a reason, and the Ohio Bobcat product has the speed and strength to play outside Welker/Edelman. He was also a great blocker at Ohio, which will certainly endear him to his coaches here. Brandon Tate offers a little more size than Price, and the 2009 3rd rounder is the type of receiver that can make the spectacular downfield catch. He has to prove he can stay healthy and master the playbook, both of which are legit questions. Venerable Torry Holt was brought in for a look, but judging from his performance last year in Jacksonville, he likely won't have much of a role here other than spotting Edelman/Welker in the slot and as someone to show the youngsters the ropes of route running. The footwork just isn't as sharp and the speed isn't there anymore for Holt. David Patten realized he had nothing left to offer and retired after signing in the offseason. One name to watch: Brown rookie Buddy Farnham.

An even bigger camp battle is going down at tight end. Rookie Rob Gronkowski is the most naturally gifted, and he has impressed with his blocking and aggressiveness early on. He has very good speed and hands and would have been a first-rounder had he not missed 2009 with a back injury, a status that he must prove he's completely overcome. Another rookie, Aaron Hernandez, is essentially an oversized wide receiver but a very good one. He is the most likely candidate to lead all their TEs in catches and yards, but his blocking must improve if he wants to get the majority of snaps. Veteran Alge Crumpler has successfully transformed himself from Michael Vick's safety net to blocking specialist. Look for him to fill Mike Vrabel's old role of 6th lineman on tackle-eligible plays and fantasy touchdown vulture. Rob Myers will have to earn his role on special teams, where Gronkowski has consistently drawn praise from coaches in the first couple weeks of camp.

OL: Cohesion is the name of the game for New England's offensive line, as the same five starters return for their 5th year together. That is contingent on Logan Mankins not holding out and Nick Kaczur holding off Sebastian Vollmer for the right tackle spot, but expect more of the same from a line that is serviceable in all aspects but lacks great skill other than Mankins.

Left to right the starters are Matt Light, Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and either Vollmer or Kaczur. The left side is the stronger side, as Mankins is a devastating run blocker and a plus pass protector, while Light is above-average at both. Koppen is a solid, smart center with one underappreciated skill mastery--the shotgun snap. Neal generally gets the job done but doesn't provide much run surge or mobility. Kaczur is probably better-served playing inside, which is why he will likely give way to Vollmer, who impressed in pass protection as a rookie. He's only been playing football for a handful of years but Vollmer proved a very quick study, and his impressive length provides intriguing developmental potential. Kaczur's ability to play both guard and tackle makes him more valuable as the 6th lineman, and he'll be the left guard if Mankins holds out (he won't get his trade demand). Kaczur also represents the entire proven depth on the OL, which could really come back to bite the high-octane offense. Mark LeVoir has been the "jumbo" tackle but pass protection has been a real issue for him. Dan Connolly was unimpressive in his starting opportunities last year. Rich Ohrnberger and rookie Ted Larson are in the very early stages of development and would benefit from practice-squad redshirt seasons, but they are one tweaked ankle from protecting Tom Brady. Pray for health up front, Pats fans!

Defense

DL: Any DL that features Vince Wilfork is going to be a good one. Finally past his seemingly perennial contract squabbles, Wilfork is probably the best nose tackle in the game with the rapid aging of his top competition. He ties up at least two blockers on every snap, but what makes Wilfork special is his ability to steer that double team where he wants to go. Wilfork is also good for about 3 run stuffs right at the line of scrimmage per game, though he seldom ventures into the backfield to make plays anymore. His teammates look to Wilfork for leadership and inspiration and he knows how to deliver.

Ty Warren has played next to him for years, and the duo works quite well together. In fact, they have almost the exact same statistical profile and job function: eat up blockers, free the back 8 to make plays, slip the block for the occasional tackle, collapse the pocket backwards. Warren is a little more likely to make a play in the backfield, but he's also more apt to need more breathers as games wear on. The other end spot features a camp battle between a pair of newcomers vying to replace the departed Jarvis Green. Damione Lewis and Gerard Warren are both 32-year old ring chasers making the move from 4-3 DT to 3-4 end. Warren is more apt to generate a pass rush--which the team would welcome, but not at the expense of run defense, where Lewis is the better player. Expect a rotation to keep all the ends fresh, which is important as this group features nobody under 29 and a cadre of knee surgeries. Second-year players Myron Pryor and Ron Brace will fight for reps as well, with Pryor the more likely to contribute anything. He can play any line spot and showed a nice motor as a rookie, while Brace's poor conditioning limits his effectiveness. Veteran Mike Wright chips in with the best pass rushing moves of the entire line, and he often gets the call at end when the team shifts to an even-man front. This line is very functional and very deep, though there's a whole lot of mileage on the collective tires.

LB: For years and years this has been a strength of the Patriots, but they enter this season with one of their weakest casts in memory. Other than ILB Jerod Mayo, a legit Pro Bowl talent even though he's yet to go, the LBs are full of one-dimensional pluggers and unproven talent.

Mayo is a very good run defender, a good hitter and solid tackler with strong instincts. His range isn't as high as some other prominent 3-4 ILBs (think Pat Willis or David Harris) but he does a good job of keeping blockers away and sifting through the trash to make the play. Teams picked on him in pass coverage, however, and he's not a very adept blitzer either. Gary Guyton started with him inside last year, and he's much better in coverage. In fact, that's about the only skill Guyton brings that can't be found from most practice squad LBs. Expect to see him on the field in passing situations and ceding snaps in the base D to rookie Brandon Spikes. The former Gator is a huge risk/reward draftee, one of the dreaded "better football player than athlete" types. Some of those have gone on to have great careers (think Zach Thomas and Chris Spielman), while many others have had their athletic limitations exposed in the NFL (think Bobby Carpenter and Teddy Lehman). Spikes is quite physical and has great fundamental technique, but extensive game tape evaluation revealed a guy consistently late to the ball, making the tackle 2-3 yards past where he should have made it. The 3-4 scheme should help him, and he won't fail for lack of effort. Second-year player Tyrone McKenzie is sort of his antithesis, a much better athlete than football player. He missed all last season with a torn ACL, so how much he has to offer in 2010 is a mystery.

Outside the situation is a little more settled. Tully Banta-Cain returns as the primary outside pass rusher, a role in which he notched 10 sacks and twice that many hurries last season. He's good at his job and can also make plays against screens and draws, though runs straight at him are a problem. Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess, his two running mates a year ago, are both gone, though Burgess could come back to the team if both he and the team are desperate. Shawn Crable was waived as camp began, thus ending a 3-year tenure where he never played a snap. Second-rounder Jermaine Cunningham will be given every chance to seize the other starting spot, and at Florida I liked his pro potential better than Spikes'. He fits the hybrid DE/OLB mold, though Cunningham has scant experience playing in space. Pierre Woods must impress Belichick with his dazzling intellect because he's shown very little as a football player. The other candidates are all guys that should consider themselves lucky to be in any camp, let alone one of a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.

DB: Nowhere has the youth movement hit the Patriots harder than the secondary, where 28-year old Leigh Bodden is the grizzled veteran. Bodden bounced around for a few years but has found a home in New England, where his passive-aggressive style and good ball skills are a great fit for the cloud zone. One of the reasons he bounced around was his poor tackling in run support (Browns coach Romeo Crennel once refused to end a practice until Bodden tackled someone with proper form, and it wasn't a quick ending), and that will rear its ugly head from time to time, but the Patriots love his savvy in coverage. They would like him to catch more than 5 of the 21 balls he deflected though.

The rest of the CB picture is green. Darius Butler should get the other starting nod, and the second-year 2nd rounder is similar to Bodden stylistically: lying in technically sound wait in the zone and pouncing on the ball in the air. He has some all-or-nothingness to his game and makes Bodden look like Jack Tatum (RIP!) as a hitter, but expect more in his sophomore campaign. First round pick Devin McCourty has the inside track as the nickel back because he's far and away the most physical presence of the corners and matches up well with bigger guys. His skills are NFL-ready and he should quickly beat out Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley, two of a plethora of recent draft disappointments. Wilhite has been the better of the two but really lacks both speed and agility, while Wheatley is visibly undersized and simply cannot stay healthy--a caveat that dates back to his high school days and got him red-flagged by many other teams. You want to know why the overall depth on this team is real shaky, look no further than senselessly risky draft picks from former GM Scott Pioli like Wheatley. It is not a coincidence that the last two drafts without him have been monumentally better than the last 4 with him.

Safety has one of the few Pioli risk picks that actually paid off: Brandon Meriweather. A CB/safety tweener with character issues coming out of Miami, Meriweather has developed into one of the better safeties in the league. It took a couple of years for him to channel the patience needed to stop over-running plays and stop trying to make every play by himself, but now he is the best of both worlds as a tweener--covering like a corner, hitting like a safety. He is as good as anyone at closing quickly on dump passes and quick slants. He's never going to be a great run defender, but his prowess in that area continues to progress as his confidence grows.

The other safety spot is not so certain. The team desperately wants 2009 2nd rounder Patrick Chung to seize the job, but he has little feel for zone coverage and poor overall spatial awareness. That's code for "runs around like a chicken with his head cut off", the main reason why several draft pundits (this one included) had him graded significantly lower than his draft slot. At least he hits with ferocity and is amenable to coaching. Brandon McGowan started last year and will be the fallback option if Chung's progress isn't satisfactory. He's reliable but decidedly average, which is not enough for a team that asks its back end to make a lot of big plays. James Sanders will provide depth unless the significantly cheaper Sergio Brown beats him out for a roster spot, which is dependent largely on special teams. Ross Ventrone sticks around because of special teams as well.

Special Teams:

Few teams invest as much of their draft resources on special teams as New England, and for the most part that expense has been wasted picks. The exception is kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who is only average on field goals but earns his keep with his booming kickoffs. They drafted position-less Matt Slater (he has moved from WR to CB on the org chart) to be the return specialist, but he flopped in that role and now mysteriously continues to hold a roster spot as if he has pictures of Tom Brady with a different hottie than either his supermodel wife or his starlet baby's mama.

The primary roles other than Gostkowski are open for competition. Rookie 5th rounder Zoltan Mesko is the odds-on favorite to win the punting job. After what seems like a 10-year career at Michigan, the hefty lefty punter must learn to change from the rugby style, something at which he struggled mightily during Senior Bowl week. He scuttled an entire segment of practice one day by being unable to boot the ball with enough hang time to run return and cover drills. It's hard to imagine him being less effective than the departed Chris Hanson, but it's also hard to see him being much of an improvement. With Welker's injury it is inconceivable that he will be used as the punt returner again, which leaves that gig wide open. Brandon Tate was a great return man in college and will be given the chance to prove that here too. Being average in both coverage and return numbers should be considered a plus.

3 Keys to the season

1. The progress of the defensive youth movement. The back 8 is chock full of greenhorns that must play significant roles, particularly in pass coverage. There is talent but it's largely unproven at the NFL level.

2. Wes Welker's status. Welker is the difference between this offense being pretty good and this offense being special. The AFC East is chock full of strong secondaries, which makes that distinction significant.

3. Eyes on the prize. For the first time in many years, the Patriots are not the most talented team in the division or the prohibitive favorites. Getting caught up in worrying about the Jets and Dolphins could take away from the larger goal of winning the AFC. That's unlikely with the masterful Bill Belichick at the helm and so many veterans, but that sure looked like the case in the playoff embarrassment last year.

Forecast

This is a toughie. So many key parts are at or nearing the end of their great functionality, and most of the rest of the team is unproven, underwhelming youngsters. It's a strange mix that has the potential to fall flat, particularly if Brady or Wilfork go down. But it also has the potential to achieve greatness, and I think they'll wear the hat of perceived lowered expectations with a vengeance. I like the way their schedule unfolds, drawing most of their tough non-divisional games (BAL, MIN, IND) at home and getting relative breathers (BUF twice, DET, CLE) at just the right time. I see the Patriots going 11-5 and being a very viable threat to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.